SINGAPORE: A flexing of military might to the world amid heightened geopolitical tensions, while simultaneously boosting the morale of a scandal-hit elite military branch - that’s what analysts say were the driving factors behind China test-firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean.
Conducted by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force, the rare publicised test launch took place on Wed (Sep 25) morning. The Chinese defence ministry said the missile carried a dummy warhead, and "fell into expected sea areas".
While the ministry stated that it was a "routine arrangement in our annual training plan" and not directed at any country or target, the development quickly made global headlines as news outlets pointed out how it was the first such test in decades.
Analysts told CNA the launch is a calculated move by an increasingly assertive Beijing to showcase its strategic deterrence capabilities and military modernisation - especially as it locks heads with rival superpower the United States in an increasing number of areas, and as tensions over Taiwan loom ever larger.
“China has conducted missile tests on land, and some observers argue that scientifically speaking, this is sufficient to gather the necessary data points, making open-water tests unnecessary,” Dr Bernard Loo, a senior fellow at the Military Studies Programme of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore, told CNA.
“If that is the case, then the purpose of the latest test is not ‘let’s make this thing work’, but 'hey guys, see what I’ve got’.”
At the same time, observers say there is a clear domestic objective to the ICBM test - for China to showcase the Rocket Force’s readiness for offensive operations, despite scandals over the past two years that have marred the elite unit which oversees the country’s nuclear arsenal.
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China conducts rare publicised test launch of intercontinental ballistic missile 
China's Communist Party expels former defence ministers Li Shangfu, Wei Fenghe for corruption Regardless of Beijing’s intent, analysts agree that the move risks stoking further tensions with the West, as well as in a region that already views the world’s second-largest economy with varying levels of distrust.
“The current relationship between Beijing and (Washington) is clearly not very good, with all kinds of technological sanctions that the Americans have slapped on China. (The ICBM launch) is, I think, a message to the US: ‘You know what, we are still modernising our ballistic missile forces, amid all your attempts at stifling our technological progress,’” said Dr Loo.
“A MESSAGE TO THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY”Wednesday’s launch is believed to be the first time in 44 years that China has launched an ICBM into international waters. The last known test took place on May 21, 1980, when a DF-5 - China’s first ICBM - travelled over 9,000km before landing in the South Pacific.
China rarely fires long-range missiles into the sea, preferring instead to conduct unannounced tests over its own territory, particularly in remote provinces like Inner Mongolia, analysts have said.
Some online trackers noted the launch of the missile from Hainan on Wednesday rather than from an inland silo, meaning it was most likely a test of China’s growing number of road-mobile long-range missiles, according to a Reuters report.
That Beijing chose to test-fire an ICBM is particularly significant, Dr Loo noted.
“Ballistic missiles are crucial for China because they represent the primary means through which the country can deliver its nuclear payload. More than bombers or submarine-launched missiles, ICBMs are the defining factor in China's strategic capabilities,” he said.
The launch comes amid an escalating Sino-West rivalry, and as Beijing grows increasingly assertive - particularly in Taiwan and the disputed South China Sea, noted Dr Grant Newsham, a senior research fellow at Japanese think tank Japan Forum for Strategic Studies.
“In recent years, Beijing has intensified its military presence in these areas, reinforcing its territorial claims and challenging international norms. I see the latest ICBM test as part of this trend,” he told CNA.
While the range of an ICBM “far exceeds what is necessary” to target Taiwan, the test still serves as a demonstration of China’s intentions regarding the self-ruled island, said Mr Drew Thompson, a former US Department of Defense official. China sees Taiwan as a renegade province and has not ruled out retaking it by force.
An ICBM usually has a range greater than 5,500km and is typically designed to carry nuclear warheads. For perspective, the Taiwan Strait is 128km at its narrowest point between mainland China and Taiwan.
“Such long-range missiles are part of a strategic capability that is intended to prevent the US from intervening (in any conflict with Taiwan) ... while also showing that it has the means to hold the US homeland at risk,” said Mr Thompson, who was a director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs at the US defence department.
“It’s part of a whole ability to conduct and enforce a blockade around Taiwanpogo88, which they (China) reportedly practised doing for the last couple of years,” he told CNA.
A fishing boat sails past a Chinese warship during a military drill off the Chinese coast near Fuzhou, Fujian Province, across from the Taiwan-controlled Matsu Islands, China, Apr 11, 2023. (Photo: REUTERS/Thomas Peter)